Draft Science · Snake drafts
Which 9-cat stats can you get off the waiver wire? Blocks and FG%, yes. Points, no.
The short answer
A free waiver pickup blocks shots like a first-round pick but scores like a 14th-rounder. Draft your points early and pick up blocks and FG% later.
- Blocks and FG% are free. After every other team makes a pickup, the wire still has a player who blocks about 1 shot a game. That beats an average first-round pick. FG% works the same way.
- Points aren't. The best scorer you'll find scores about 12.5 points a game. An average 13th-round pick scores more.
- So pay for scorers, not one-stat players. Yahoo drafts Brook Lopez in round 9 for blocks. We'd wait until round 12, because the wire gives blocks away.
Everyone says you can find blocks on the waiver wire
But few people check how good the wire is in each category. So we did.
We tested it on a 14-team league
The top 182 players by Yahoo's average draft position, or ADP, get drafted, 13 to a team. Everyone else is on the waiver wire. Say every other team grabs one pickup before you. Then you get the 14th-best player left. In blocks, that's the 14th-best shot-blocker left. In points, it's the 14th-best scorer left. We asked which draft round that free pickup matches. The stats are Pikola's 2026-27 projections.
A free pickup blocks shots like a first-round pick and scores like a 14th-rounder
Exhibit 1The round a free pickup matches, by category
14-team league, per game. We skip turnovers, since waiver players barely touch the ball.
The 14th-best shot-blocker left blocks about 1 shot a game. An average first-round pick blocks about 0.9. The 14th-best scorer left scores about 12.5 points a game. An average 13th-round pick scores about 13. That's below the last round, so we call it a 14th-rounder.
Still on the wire after 182 picks: shot-blockers like Jakob Poeltl, Daniel Gafford and Jalen Smith. Also there: high-percentage shooters like Isaiah Jackson, Oso Ighodaro and Marvin Bagley III. But the best scorers left are players like Scoot Henderson, De'Andre Hunter and Naji Marshall.
So what: draft points early. Blocks and FG% can wait.
In a 16-team league the wire runs thinner
Exhibit 2The round a free pickup matches, by league size
Per game. With 12 teams, your pickup is the 12th-best player left. With 16, the 16th-best.
| Category | 12 teams | 14 teams | 16 teams |
|---|---|---|---|
| Field goal % | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Blocks | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Steals | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| Threes | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Free throw % | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Rebounds | 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Assists | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| Points | 9 | 13 or later | 13 or later |
With 16 teams, blocks and steals fall to about round 7. More of them get drafted, so fewer are left. With 12 teams, even points reach round 9.
That makes some players overpriced and some bargains
Pikola's round is where we'd draft a player, counting only what they give beyond a free pickup. So a decent shot-blocker drops, but a great one can rise.
Yahoo takes Brook Lopez in round 9, mostly for blocks. But a free pickup already blocks like a first-rounder. What Lopez adds beyond that is worth a round-12 pick. Ausar Thompson goes the other way. Thompson's steals beat anything on the wire, so Pikola's round is 4, not 7.
Each line shows Yahoo's round, then Pikola's round.
Overpriced
- AJ Dybantsa rookie 6 → 12
- Al Horford 8 → 13
- Jaylen Brown 3 → 7
- Cameron Boozer rookie 4 → 8
- Darryn Peterson rookie 8 → 12
- Aday Mara rookie 9 → 13
- AJ Green 9 → 13
- LeBron James 3 → 6
- Deni Avdija 3 → 6
- Brook Lopez 9 → 12
- Klay Thompson 9 → 12
- Stephon Castle 4 → 6
Bargains
- Cason Wallace 13 → 5
- Khaman Maluach 13 → 6
- Neemias Queta 12 → 6
- Ajay Mitchell 12 → 7
- Ty Jerome 11 → 7
- Zach Edey 6 → 3
- Ausar Thompson 7 → 4
- Immanuel Quickley 7 → 4
- Jalen Suggs 8 → 6
Points need the ball, so scorers get drafted
All 30 of the best scorers are taken. Shot-blockers aren't. Of the 30 best, 9 go undrafted.
Here's what to do on draft day
- Spend your early rounds on points. The best scorer on the wire is worth less than a 13th-round pick.
- Don't spend a mid-round pick on blocks or FG% alone. The wire gives you a first-round level of both.
- In a 16-team league, draft your blocks and steals. There the wire only gives you a round-7 level.
How we ran the numbers
The stats are Pikola's 2026-27 projections for every player in our source list. ADP comes from Yahoo's draft room on 8 October 2026. Drafted means the first 13 players per team by ADP. The wire is everyone else projected for 20 or more games. Every stat is per game. For FG% and FT%, a player's percentage counts for more the more shots they take. Each round's average is blended with the rounds next to it, to smooth out noise. Pikola's round adds up how far a player beats the free pickup in each stat. Players projected for more games count for more. We only list players who stay overpriced or bargains with 12 or 16 teams, and if ADP shifts a few picks. Injured players Yahoo lists as out are left off.
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